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By J. Andrew Peak

Last Saturday, in a piece posted on Breitbart, Sarah Palin deftly used her pen in defense of the recent efforts by GOP Senators Ted Cruz and Mike Lee to defund Obamacare.

In doing so, she took to task the GOP establishment. Her piece was a wide-ranging synopsis and critique of the current environment surrounding Republican Party politics. With aplomb, she touched on many problems and pointed out the cowardice, backstabbing and ineffectiveness of the establishment.

As usual, Mrs. Palin was on point in her analysis.

A few quotes though stood out in particular. Embedded deep within those quotes is an organizational strategy conservatives should ponder. In fact, embedded in Sarah’s words is a strategy for destroying the republican establishment.

In one quote Mrs. Palin said:

“But the permanent political class is handwringing and howling that if there’s a government shutdown the media will blame Republicans for it.

Here’s a little newsflash, GOP establishment: Whenever anything bad happens, the media blames Republicans for it. That’s not an excuse to roll over and play dead.”

Sarah Palin’s exactly right. The media will blame republicans. And the GOP establishment types, firmly entrenched in D.C., are scared to death of precisely that. Fear paralyzes them and they fail to act. It is why most become so useless.

Currently, the political calculus of the republican establishment is quite simple. Their thinking is:

“If we fight on Obamacare or the debt ceiling and things blow up and the government shuts down – the media will blame us. In turn, the precious so called independents might blame us. This could happen! And if this happens, it may alienate independents and they may not vote republican.”

So what can be done to change it?

The answer is to make the republicans more scared of you – the wackobird conservative small government type – than they are of the media.

How can this be done?

By changing and upending the calculus to this:

“If we don’t fight on Obamacare or the debt ceiling conservatives will blame us. This will happen. And when this happens, it will alienate conservatives and they will not vote republican. And without them, we’ll lose anyway. So we have no choice.”

So what will lead them to this conclusion?

Put bluntly, you conservatives saying that you will NOT vote for them and perhaps even leave the party. But this cannot be an idle or empty threat said only to oneself or a group of friends behind closed doors. It requires you to be principled, steadfast and intent on carrying out such threats. Furthermore it must be done in the open and recorded for the world to see. Otherwise, it’s about as useless as a red line drawn by Barack Obama.

The difference between calculi is that one is merely a possibility whereas the other is certain. In other words, if they know with absolute certainty that they will lose you – it changes the entire political calculus among elected representatives.

Why? Because given that scenario, the electoral numbers will definitely not work because the electoral model breaks down and ceases to function. Where, with the original calculus there is some remote chance that things may magically work out, under the new calculus there is no chance that things will work out – ever.

And this does not only apply with regard to Obamacare. The same calculus applies to immigration, the debt and everything else.

You see – right now, according to the GOP establishment rubric, if you’re a conservative – they own you. You’re their property. It’s why they take you for granted. It’s why they don’t listen to you. After all, in their minds, you have nowhere else to go – except to your recliner.

And that’s precisely where many went when faced with casting a ballot for John McCain and Mitt Romney. Millions of Evangelicals, Conservatives and conservatarians stayed home.

Yet the GOP establishment has never been delivered this message explicitly. Disgruntled conservatives have simply walked away and dropped off the voter rolls – much the same way that the jobless don’t get counted after so many weeks of unemployment. And because they’ve pulled a Houdini and vanished into thin air, the political class (especially the consultant class) has misread exactly what happened in those elections. And they continue to misinterpret those results.

Understand this – if you want things to change, the calculus will only change if you intend to follow through on any threats to stay home and not vote republican. It is a sad state affairs but this is the only way to get the elected to listen. They are scared to death of you. It is why they refused to hold town hall meetings during the August recess.

No doubt some will accuse me of trying to splinter or fracture the party.

This is nonsense. I am simply the messenger. I am not asking anyone to leave the Republican Party. Conservatives are finding the exits on their own. And make no mistake – it is already happening. People are staying home rather than voting. Indeed Mrs. Palin herself has even talked about the need to walk away. And so has Rush. And so has Hannity. And so has Beck. And so has Levin.

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