Trump Polling: Not Good News

I think presidential candidate, reality TV star, and billionaire builder Donald Trump stunk on ice in the debate. I truly expected better. I even wanted better.

I’ve written articles of what Trump should have said; honestly, I answered instantly, using only a fraction of the fraction of brain I use.

Because of Trump’s bad performance, the great performance by a handful of candidates, and steady performance of others, I predicted Trump would fall from 24 percent down to around 17 percent. However, everything I read seemed to indicate that Trump was holding firm.

Then I would glance an article that said Trump was rising.  Seriously, I thought. There’s just no way.

I understand the cult of personality that is Trump, and it plays well for TV. But in reality, it’s a bit annoying.

Nevertheless, was his “shtick” working? I couldn’t see how, though I admitted it was possible to help him survive another day. Then I got new information that fits more with my perception.

The Examiner reports:

It isn’t wise to make a prediction based on a single poll. Still, it’s wise to pay attention to polls to see if that poll shows the start of a new trend. Rasmussen’s latest GOP presidential poll isn’t good news for Donald Trump. First, it isn’t good news for Mr. Trump because his support nationally dropped from 26% from July 28-29 to 17% on August 9-10. While it’s just a single poll, this isn’t good news for Mr. Trump for multiple reasons.

First, Rasmussen’s polls always use a likely voter screen, which are the most predictive public polls. For instance, if a polling company screened for registered voters, it’s quite possible for lots of registered voters to identify with the candidate that everyone’s heard about rather than the other 16 lesser-known candidates. It’d make for a nice press release for the Trump campaign but it wouldn’t necessarily mean that those voters would actually get to the polling station and vote for Mr. Trump.

Next, another healthy dose of potentially bad news for Mr. Trump is that Carly Fiorina‘s dominant performance in the “Happy Hour Debate” helped her skyrocket from 1% in the late July poll to 9% in the August post-debate poll. It’s still too early to know with certainty whether Ms. Fiorina’s momentum will continue, though it isn’t a stretch to think that it will.

I hope Trump hangs around long enough to teach the other Republicans a few more lessons. But there is a part of me that wants him to leave politics to the more serious types.

The presidency has been a “reality horror show” under Obama. It won’t be soon enough for me to never see his bony ass getting on Air Force One again. But I don’t want to trade one reality show nightmare for another.


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