Though Democrats consider winning the Senate a longshot, they cling to hope of a flip of the House.
Most pundits say the Republicans have long odds to keep the House. To defend their positions, they mention all the historical data. Understand that the Republicans will keep the House, and neither history nor Democrat cheating changes that.
The momentum of Republicans is more real than any time in history. Even CNN proposed an “unlikely” scenario where Republicans can win. They did this so they wouldn’t look as stupid as they did on November 8, 2016.
Indeed, it’s not too difficult to paint a scenario in which the Republicans maintain control. Let’s say Republicans win all the seats where they are favored as well as the seats where Democratic candidate leads by about a point or less in our forecast. That would leave Republicans with 220 seats to Democrats with 215 seats. Now, that’s not the most likely scenario, but it’s on the table.
It’s more than on the table. And CNN offers a reason why. See if you’ve heard it before?
You could also imagine a situation in which the polling is off. Let’s say there’s a systematic polling error, and Democrats only win the House popular vote by 5 percentage points instead of the 8 or so they’re currently projected to win by. That too could keep Democrats out of the majority. In the 2014 midterm, such an error did occur.
The next reason given is one of my favorites.
Perhaps most intriguing is what happens if traditionally Republican voters who are thinking of voting Democratic decide in the final days of the campaign that they’re going to vote Republican after all. There’s little doubt that President Donald Trump is hoping that will happen given the rhetoric he’s used in the last week to rev up the base.
Keep in mind that almost every poll has Republicans overwhelmingly in support of the president, the idea that this group would kill the Republican vote is ridiculous. More interestingly is CNN ignores Democrats who may vote Republican.
The #WalkAway movement is real. And polling among almost any Democrat-leaning demographic has at least 30 percent of any special interest group now leaning Republicans. This includes blacks, who they say may have shifted as much as 40 percent in favor of President Trump, ergo Republicans.
The article continues, discussing polling again.
Right now, our forecast has 13 districts (including 9 with Republican incumbents running) where the Democrat is favored to win and the weighted average partisanship (i.e. our measure for how the district has voted in all sorts of elections over the last six year) is greater than 8 points for Republicans.
That means even in a national environment favoring Democrats, these are districts, on average we would think would go Republican. If the 11 of these districts that are currently projected to go Democratic by 4 points or less go the other way, Republicans would hold onto a bare majority.
Of course, it would be absolutely the wrong takeaway from 2016 to assume that forecasts are underestimating Republicans.
Rather, the correct takeaway is that forecast can be off in either direction: favoring Democrats or Republicans.
I’d actually argue it’s slightly more likely that our forecast is underestimating the Democrats. My former colleague Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight has a “deluxe” forecast model that gives Democrats 230 or 231 seats, depending on whether you use “mean” or “median” forecast. In other words, looking at this data, chances are we’re on the low end of estimates.
Further, if you look at the polling this cycle, it’s actually the Democrats who have been outperforming their numbers, not the Republicans.
There is a poll Democrats continue to ignore. Trump rallies.
Attend any Trump rally and you get a snapshot of the real picture. These events are ALL attended by thousands, with thousands more who can’t get in.
But the number missing are the thousands who won’t go, because they don’t want to fight the crowds. They support the President and his agenda.
Barack Obama ventured out in early September. His event was attended by 700 likely paid attendees. This event was to be his “coming out” to support the Democrats running for office. He has not been back since.
The only Democrat I’ve seen campaigning for others is Joe Biden appeared recently in Nevada. I’m sure it was a rousing event attended by dozens.
Finally, look at the early voting in FL, for example. This looks really good for Republicans.
A Republican advantage fills the backdrop as voters head to the polls early across the state on Saturday.
Of the nearly 790,000 mail-in ballots returned as of Friday afternoon, Republicans have the edge with 367,864 ballots cast. Democrats have returned 313,678, according to the Division of Elections.
This disparity shows up all over the country, but the Left ignore it.
They want Republicans to believe our votes are useless. Moreover, they look for any signs of genning up support for the Democrat base
All they’ve managed to do is demoralize their base. The Kanye Effect, The Kavanaugh Effect and mostly The Trump Effect have all contributed to their paranoid delusions.