The midterm elections set up just like the Presidential Election of 2016 in a lot of ways.
For example, Donald Trump has a bona fide record of success that Democrats ignore.
In another example, Democrats feel confident about their candidates.
Finally, Democrats are equally confident about their polls. I will come back to each of these.
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Suffice it to say, a few Democrats can feel the same sense of confidence that led to their brutal defeat on November 8, 2016.
As PJStar reports,
Ferguson is one of many Democrats who felt the sting of unexpected defeat in 2016 and are now closely — and nervously — watching the current election near its end, wondering if history will repeat itself. This year, instead of trying to win the presidency, Democrats are trying to gain 23 House seats and win a majority.
The anxiety isn’t universal, with many party leaders professing confidently and repeatedly that this year really is different.
But even some of them acknowledge the similarities between the current and previous election: President Trump is unpopular and beset by scandal, Democrats hold leads in the polls, and some Republicans are openly pessimistic.
I mentioned polling earlier, but first look at the odds:
FiveThirtyEight gives Democrats a 76.9 percent chance of winning the House one month before Election Day. Its odds for Clinton’s victory two years ago was 71.4 percent.
The abundance of optimism brings back queasy memories for Jesse Lehrich, who worked on the Clinton campaign and remembers watching the returns come in from the Javits Center in New York.
“I was getting texts after the result was clear — including even from some political reporters and operatives — texting me, you know, ‘Are you guys starting to get nervous?’ or ‘What’s her most likely path?’” he said. “I was like, ‘What do you mean, starting to get nervous? What path? They just called Wisconsin. We lost.’”
Back to my earlier points.
Have the Democrats looked at Trump’s successes? Let’s just look at jobs.
As the Washington Examiner documented,
- 4 million new jobs have been created since the election, and more than 3.5 million since Trump took office.
- More Americans are employed now than ever before in our history.
- Jobless claims at lowest level in nearly five decades.
- The economy has achieved the longest positive job-growth streak on record.
- Job openings are at an all-time high and outnumber job seekers for the first time on record.
- Unemployment claims at 50 year low
- African-American, Hispanic, and Asian-American unemployment rates have all recently reached record lows.
- African-American unemployment hit a record low of 5.9 percent in May 2018.
- Hispanic unemployment at 4.5 percent.
- Asian-American unemployment at record low of 2 percent.
- Women’s unemployment recently at lowest rate in nearly 65 years.
- Female unemployment dropped to 3.6 percent in May 2018, the lowest since October 1953.
- Youth unemployment recently reached its lowest level in more than 50 years.
- July 2018’s youth unemployment rate of 9.2 percent was the lowest since July 1966.
- Veterans’ unemployment recently hit its lowest level in nearly two decades.
- July 2018’s veterans’ unemployment rate of 3.0 percent matched the lowest rate since May 2001.
- Unemployment rate for Americans without a high school diploma recently reached a record low.
- Rate for disabled Americans recently hit a record low.
- Blue-collar jobs recently grew at the fastest rate in more than three decades.
- Poll found that 85 percent of blue-collar workers believe their lives are headed “in the right direction.”
- 68 percent reported receiving a pay increase in the past year.
- Last year, job satisfaction among American workers hit its highest level since 2005.
- Nearly two-thirds of Americans rate now as a good time to find a quality job.
- Optimism about the availability of good jobs has grown by 25 percent.
- Added more than 400,000 manufacturing jobs since the election.
- Manufacturing employment is growing at its fastest pace in more than two decades.
- 100,000 new jobs supporting the production & transport of oil & natural gas.
Keep in mind this is just ONE area.
When you look at income, optimism, deregulation, business, infrastructure, trade, and so on, there is nothing, repeat nothing but optimism on the horizon.
What could the Democrats possibly be optimistic about? While they can pump money into each race and target individual Republican politicians, Democrats can’t control the blanket of success Trump has tossed over every supportive Republican candidate.
Trump’s success is campaign fundraising at its finest. There exists no Republican politician that I know of who would NOT want President Trump to endorse them, fundraise for them, or campaign with them. This includes the RINOs who voted against the confirmation of Judge Brett Kavanaugh.
I dare you to find a Democrat politician who wants Hillary Clinton. As for Democrats as a whole, does anybody believe that party has a single person welcome in all campaigns? How many politicians currently campaign with Obama? Ocasio-Cortez may have gotten Bernie Sanders to show up, but Obama didn’t even recommend her on his recommended list of who to vote for.
Imagine how bad you must be to miss Obama’s list?!
The Democrats have NO message, NO messiah, and all their plots against Trump have failed. Meanwhile, Trump (and Congress) deliver daily on promises made, and now kept. And the most important of these has to do with the American people.
Look at Trump’s record of achievement with the Average Joe:
- Median household income rose to $61,372 in 2017, a post-recession high.
- Wages up in August by their fastest rate since June 2009.
- Paychecks rose by 3.3 percent between 2016 and 2017, the most in a decade.
- Council of Economic Advisers found that real wage compensation has grown by 1.4 percent over the past year.
- Some 3.9 million Americans off food stamps since the election.
- Median income for Hispanic-Americans rose by 3.7 percent and surpassed $50,000 for the first time ever in history.
- Home-ownership among Hispanics is at the highest rate in nearly a decade.
- Poverty rates for African-Americans and Hispanic-Americans have reached their lowest levels ever recorded.
It’s the economy stupid, right?!
And Trump is an economic rock star whose success has lifted the ocean for all Republican boats.
Forget the polls. Let the Left continue to poll themselves, so they can feel comfort. The real polls are in paychecks and how Americans feel. So here you go:
- Small business optimism has hit historic highs.
- NFIB’s small business optimism index broke a 35 year-old record in August.
- SurveyMonkey/CNBC’s small business confidence survey for Q3 of 2018 matched its all-time high.
- Manufacturers are more confident than ever.
- 95 percent of U.S. manufacturers are optimistic about the future, the highest ever.
- Consumer confidence is at an 18-year high.
- 12 percent of Americans rate the economy as the most significant problem facing our country, the lowest level on record.
- Confidence in the economy is near a two-decade high, with 51 percent rating the economy as good or excellent.
Sleep well, Conservatives.
We have six more years of watching President Trump right the ship, and he will have a Republican-controlled Congress to help him.