Vegas Odds for President Trump’s Chances in 2020

Tax March; #KevinJackson

Want to bet on the presidency? Then here’s your chance.

Imagine what the odds were when Donald Trump first announced that he would run for president. If only you could have gotten in on that action. I’m guessing  a $1,000 would netted you a fat down-payment on a nice crib.

But today, not so much.

According to CNN, President Trump’s chances for re-election are pretty good, considering where he starts this time:

President Donald Trump has raised more than $100 million for a re-election battle that is more than two years away, giving him a massive financial advantage over a crowded field of potential Democratic contenders jockeying to challenge him in 2020.

The President raised more than $18 million during the July-to-September fundraising quarter through his campaign committee and the joint fundraising operations he maintains with the Republican National Committee, according to his campaign and filings Monday night with Federal Election Commission. That haul means his re-election effort’s war chest now exceeds $106 million.

Trump’s campaign ended last month with more $35.4 million in available cash stockpiled in its bank account.

Remember when Trump financed his run for the presidency with his own money?

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Now, he’s using OPM: other people’s money. And those people gladly support him.

But Trump has other advantages he baked into his 2020 run. As we reported when Trump announced his 2020 bid:

The New Normal?

This is not normal.  According to IP Watchdog:

“Obama filed for 2012 reelection in April 2011. Incumbents [declaring their candidacy] before midterms is unheard of.”

But since when has Donald Trump ever conducted business as usual?  The populist movement that President Trump ignited was grounded in the fact that he was a political outsider, and would thus operate in stark contrast to career politicians in Washington, D.C.  Why should his reelection campaign break from the unpredictable way Trump has comported himself so far?

Implications for Candidate Trump

What does this mean?  First, according to AZ Family, it means that 501c3 (non-profit) organizations cannot work or speak negatively about President, who would of course be “candidate” Trump.  If they do, it is considered opposition to a candidate, and grounds for losing the group’s tax exempt status.

This makes nonprofits’ political strategy for the next few years dicey to say the least. If they want to defeat Trump’s policies, they need to figure out how to do it without “campaigning.”  No more Planned Parenthood rallies claiming Trump is against women’s healthcare, when their real goal is abortion promotion. Legally, however, nonprofits working for Trump are limited in their “campaign” efforts as well. But remember, President Trump has the bully pulpit.

Second, his FEC filing means that Trump is afforded different protections as a candidate.  Some critics are already complaining, AZ Family reports:

They are concerned “about Trump’s business entanglements” and wonder if “U.S. nationals could funnel cash to Trump through his campaign committee.”

Trump’s early filing also raises complications regarding rules for using official government resources while campaigning for office.

Brilliant move by Trump as we reported at the time. Now back to Vegas odds.

According to OddsShark, Kamala Harris has the best odds to beat President Trump. 

Kamala Harris has moved from +1400 to +1000 in less than two months, even though she has not officially announced she’d be running for the Democratic nomination in 2020. Her odds hold steady as the top Democrat to become president.

This contradicts what polls report, as they have former VP Joe Biden with 33 percent chance of being the Democrats’ nominee in 2020.

For those hoping Hollyweirdos will bail out America, Vegas believes odds are long on that:

With Trump emerging from the world of real estate and reality TV, there was early consideration given to some potential celebrity candidates for president in 2020, however that discussion has given way to more seasoned political candidates from the left. If you think there’s a shot, though, you can still get your bets in on Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson (+4000), Oprah Winfrey (+3000) or even Elon Musk’s buddy, Joe Rogan (+20000).

At the present rate of destruction of the Democratic Party and the media, the Left will be so crippled going into 2020, their candidate will be little more than a sacrificial lamb.

Don’t expect President Trump to lose any sleep over the Democrats’ nominee.

 

 

 

 

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