Signs exist all over that prove Democrats have big trouble ahead. And many see the writing on the wall. It reads: “Trump re-elected”.
But more than just Trump’s re-election scares Democrats. They know what awaits down ticket. Like, Trump will win back the House, shocking Pelosi.
The GOP needs to flip at least 18 seats in 2020 to win back the House (19 if Republicans lose the special election in NC-8).
Currently, there are 31 Democrats running in districts carried by President Trump in 2016 and only three Republicans sitting in districts carried by Hillary Clinton. Many of the Democratic victories came in traditionally Republican districts. A repeat of this is unlikely to say the least in a presidential election year. Particularly this presidential election year. Higher turnout means many of those seats should revert to GOP control. And Trump will bring higher turnout.
Look at Trump’s primary numbers compared to Obama’s second-term primary numbers:
- Trump in Michigan—639,143 vs Obama in Michigan—174,054
- Trump in Texas—1,889,006 vs Obama in Texas—520,410
- Trump in New Hampshire—129,734 vs Obama in New Hampshire—49,080
In almost all cases, Trump tripled Obama’s numbers. Democrats aren’t ignoring these numbers.
Democrats will make a full-court press for the Senate. Unsuccessfully. Because along with winning back the House, Republicans will increase their numbers in the Senate. And one of the signs points to Sen. Doug Jones. He parted with Pelosi.
He was the only Democrat to vote in favor of cloture on Monday, which would fast-track the proposed Wuhan Chinese Wuhan virus relief bill.
Though Jones voted alongside Republicans, Democrats squashed the motion with a 49-46 vote.
Jones told CNN’s Manu Raji he’s “embarrassed” by the political games that are taking place.
Recall Jones defeated Judge Roy Moore in a highly contested race. He won in a Republican district by spreading disinformation about Moore. Now Jones finds himself in a pickle.
Of the 33 senators up for re-election, 23 are Republicans. In other times, that might make them vulnerable. But given Trump’s performance and Democrats’ shenanigans, Republican find themselves in good shape.
First, 13 seats for Republicans are a lock. The remaining ten only puts a few seats in play, but nothing Trump’s coattails can’t pull through. Martha McSally is said to be at risk. But I suspect Arizonans will make it clear that the state is Red. Trump didn’t hold a rally in Phoenix AZ by chance. And that rally won’t be the only outreach he does.
The Democrats on the other hand have seats in play. And I believe the Republicans will win a few of them.
For example, Democrats will lose Doug Jones’ seat in Alabama. Jones’ aforementioned overtures won’t save him.
Minnesota’s Tina Smith will be in play due mostly to antics by Ilhan Omar. Democrats hold about a 1-point advantage over Republicans thus far. But Trump will soak that lead up and give the Republican challenger a leg up for sure.
New Hampshire’s Jeanne Sheehan finds herself at risk, with most polls showing “even” in that race.
Virginia’s Mark Warner will need a new job soon, as their governor’s over-reach on gun control killed his chances.
Even Michigan might be in play if John James gains steam, and I think he will.
So Republicans have a lot to look forward to in the next election. Democrats not so much.