Why Are So Many Democrats Quitting Politics?

If your party’s leader was a corrupt pathological liar and brain-dead moron would you want to stick around? Take one for the team.

Or would you cash out, before the bomb exploded to avoid getting hit by Shrapnel?

With less than a year before election day 2024, the number of retirements in the House and the Senate may break a record for this cycle. Currently, 36 members of Congress have already announced they were not seeking re-election. This includes Senator Joe Manchin who may see the writing on the wall, as his West Virginia Senate seat has moved from “Leans Republican” to “Safe Republican” in the Sabato Crystal Ball ratings.

While some speculate Manchin may challenge a very damage Joe Biden, I believe Manchin has other reasons for leaving.

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Look at the numbers.

Currently, there are 27 Democrats not running for re-election. In contrast, only 9 Republicans are declining to run. Some of those candidates are running for another office such as governor and senator. That’s 36 retirements for those doing the math. But we can expect more, if history is any indicator.

Ballotpedia explains that post-Christmas generally brings a flurry of retirements. And that in a two-year election cycle, the most common month for House and Senate retirement announcements is January of the election year., when members have returned after the holidays.

Since the 2012 election, an average of 6.5 members have announced their retirements in January. The only month with more retirement announcements than this one — so far — was January 2014, with 10.

If the average holds, 36 retirements could end up being well over 40.

Now the bad news for Democrats.

According to Politico, out of the last 15 elections, the party with the fewest retirements won 10. Worse, even with a partisan lean of 10, a district with a retired incumbent is still considered “in play” by the opposing party.

Speaking of incumbents, Joe Biden can’t win his own campaign. And I’ve commented that Biden will not be his party’s nominee in 2024. Actually, I hope I’m wrong on this. Because I’d love to see Donald Trump get his comeuppance on Biden in a rematch. Trump will clean Biden’s defective clock.

So nothing but headwinds for all Democrats. The weight of Biden coupled with the policies of Democrats means that Republicans will enjoy huge advantages in these open races. Also, the Republican Party can spend money much more wisely, as it can target specific races.

I’ve spoken extensively on the Democrats’ inability to cheat in the next election cycle, at least as massively as they have in the last two election cycles. They can’t rely on the mass hysteria they engineered with covid. People won’t be tricked into that farce again. Also, grassroots Republicans now watch every move Democrats made to cheat the last time. And while results vary state to state, many more safeguards are in place to prevent outright election theft.

I have no doubt that history will hold, and Republicans will pick up seats in both the House and the Senate. In addition, Donald Trump will win his rightful second term. I only hope the republic learns from what happened, and never allow it to happen again.



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