The Economy That Wasn’t Supposed to Work
Remember when tariffs were going to trigger a trade apocalypse? When inflation was supposed to strangle us all like a Chucky the Clown necktie? When every economist with a podcast swore Trump’s policies would send the stock market and our economy into a nosedive?
Turns out, the only thing nosediving was their credibility.
The Trump economy—yes, that economy, the one we were told would implode—is currently doing its best impression of a rocket strapped to a Ferrari. Record-breaking earnings, a stock market hitting highs like it’s 1999 (but without the questionable frosted tips), and inflation that’s… well, not transitory, but actually retreating. Meanwhile, the same experts who predicted doom are now either quietly deleting old tweets or doubling down with the kind of confidence usually reserved for people who still think “the metaverse” is a thing.
Let’s take a victory lap through the wreckage of bad predictions—and maybe, just maybe, ask why anyone still listens to the people who got it all so gloriously wrong.
The Numbers That Make Experts Sweat
President Trump’s team recently dropped a truth bomb wrapped in economic data:
“Under President Donald J. Trump’s bold pro-growth policies, American businesses are thriving like never before — shattering earnings forecasts and propelling the stock market to continued record highs.”
Let’s unpack that, because the details are delicious.
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S&P 500 earnings per share are up 11% over last year—nearly three times higher the “consensus expectation.” (Who set that expectation? A room full of pessimists and a Magic 8-Ball?)
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84% of companies have beaten Wall Street estimates—the highest share in nearly four years.
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60% of companies crushed earnings forecasts by more than a standard deviation, per Goldman Sachs. (Translation: The “smart money” wasn’t just wrong—it was spectacularly wrong.)
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58% of companies raised their full-year guidance, doubling the number from Q1.
And the cherry on top? Mentions of “recession” in earnings calls have plummeted 84% since last quarter.
David Kostin, Goldman Sachs’ chief U.S. equity strategist (who, to his credit, isn’t hiding from the data), admitted: “The quarter has been marked by one of the greatest frequency of earnings beats on record.”
Translation: “We might’ve underestimated this whole ‘pro-business policies actually helping business’ thing.”
A Brief History of ‘Experts’ Being Terrible at Their Jobs
This isn’t the first time the economic priesthood has been caught with its pants down.
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2016: Post-election, the Washington Post warned that Trump’s victory would trigger a market meltdown. The Dow promptly soared.
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2018: Tariffs were supposed to spark a global trade war. Instead, the U.S. economy grew at 3%, wages rose, and unemployment hit 50-year lows.
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2020: The pandemic (rightly) spooked markets, but the recovery under Trump’s policies was the fastest in modern history. Then Biden inherited the rebound and… well, let’s just say inflation didn’t come from nowhere.
Now, in 2024, the same playbook is repeating: Deregulation, tax cuts, and pro-growth policies are fueling an earnings boom—while the experts who swore it wouldn’t work are suddenly very interested in talking about something else.
The Gas Pump Test (And Other Inconvenient Realities)
But forget Wall Street. Let’s talk about something normal people care about: gas prices.
For months during the Biden Era, we were told inflation was “sticky,” “structural,” or—my personal favorite—“transitory.” (A word so discredited it should be banned from economics like the “flat earth” theory is from astronomy.) Under President Trump suddenly prices are easing. Gas is cheaper. Groceries aren’t quite the financial assault they were a year ago.
Is this a coincidence? Or is it possible that competent economic policy actually works?
Trump’s team didn’t just hope for growth—they engineered it. Deregulation unleashed energy production, tax incentives spurred investment, and yes, tariffs forced trading partners to the table. The result? An economy that’s thriving despite the best efforts of naysayers to will a recession into existence.
Conclusion: Fire the ‘Experts,’ Keep the Growth
The irony is almost too rich: The same people who mocked Trump’s economic approach are now watching it deliver the kind of results they swore were impossible.
So here’s a modest proposal: Next time an “expert” predicts doom, ask for their track record. If they’ve spent years being wrong, maybe it’s time to stop listening to them?
In the meantime, enjoy the boom. And maybe send a thank-you note to the president for policies making it happen—before the next round of bad predictions starts.
