People wonder what the effect of the Kavanaugh hearings on the 2018 midterms. I don’t need to wonder.
I’ve been predicting a bloodbath for Democrats. Yes, they will be soaked in RED when it’s all said and done. I said this before the Kavanaugh witch trial, and it’s more true now.
As the dust settled on this political miscalculation of monumental proportions by Democrats, things have indeed worsened for Democrats. More on that in a bit.
During the Kavanaugh witch trials, common sense foretold the future. In one source I read,
Where the Harris Poll’s study gets really interesting is in its findings on the impact of the FBI investigation and on the issue of corroboration. “[T]he credibility of their testimony does not appear to be the decisive factor,” writes Penn. “Rather, the question comes down to corroboration as the standard for tipping public opinion on whether Kavanaugh should ascend to the high court.”
When respondents were told that the three named witnesses do not corroborate Ford’s claims, 57% said they are in favor of his confirmation. If the FBI finds no corroboration for Ford’s claims, 60% say Kavanaugh should be confirmed.
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You know the outcome, as Brett Kavanaugh has a new title as a judge in the SCOTUS.
Back to the Future:
As Hot Air writes,
If we didn’t have a bunch of independent polls showing Republicans surging in red-state Senate races, I wouldn’t bother with this one. It’s a GOP poll, it’s likely self-serving, it’s a major outlier from the RCP average, where Manchin leads comfortably by 9.4 points.
I don’t put much stock in polls. I do know that Manchin is considered a potential target for Republicans to gain a senate seat. Further, I consider the seat winnable.
If there is a time to make a switch everywhere a Democrat senator sits, that time is now. Because here’s the problem Manchin faces.
In the poll referenced above, there were found deeply partisan responses.
72% of Republicans favor confirmation now; even more, 86%, would favor it if the FBI finds no corroboration. Among Democrats, even if Kavanaugh is cleared by the FBI, 60% would still oppose him.
So Manchin won’t get any Republican votes, though he voted for Kavanaugh. However, he could potentially lose up to 60 percent of the Democrat vote.
As for other Democrats, I repeat what I said early. Going against Kavanaugh was a huge miscalculation.
Confirmation of SCOTUS justices is typically a formality, hardly political, per se. In this case, Democrats tried the #MeToo ploy and it failed. Despite the attempt to characterize Kavanaugh as a vile serial rapists and voyeur, Democrats forced people to look closely at the tactics Democrats use to target great Americans.
They managed to touch the, “That could be me!” nerve.
Democrat women see their fathers, husbands, and sons in Kavanaugh. While we all sympathize with real victims of sexual abuse, most Americans draw the line with liars claiming to be victims of sexual abuse.
So where are the other Senate races?
I read this on one site:
RCP currently gives Republicans 49 seats that are either “safe” or not up for reelection. Prior to the Kavanaugh allegations, that number was 47. Meanwhile, the Democrats safely have 44 seats, which means they need to win all seven of the remaining toss ups to gain the 51-seat majority in the Senate. Post-Kavanaugh, that prospect is looking less and less likely.
Tennessee’s open seat is one of those “toss ups.” Recall that Taylor Swift recently chimed in on this race, based on the Kavanaugh vote. Again, a likely backfire.
Reports are that support for Republican Marsha Blackburn surged, and the race may have moved to “leaning” Republican.
At one point Democrat Phil Bredesen once enjoyed a five-point lead, however two things happened: (1) the Kavanaugh witch trial, and (2) an undercover video by Project Veritas that expose Bredesen as a liar on whether he supported Kavanaugh, when in fact he doesn’t.
While this may satisfy some in his base, the fact that he’s a liar won’t help his cause.
A Fox News poll last week put Blackburn ahead by 5 points. Also, a CBS News/YouGov poll found her leading by 8 points. And for Republicans really looking for good news, a New York Times Upshot poll this week found Blackburn ahead by 14 points.
In a hotly contest race for Arizona’s open seat trend lines show the seat leaning Republican.
A recent ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights poll found Republican Martha McSally leading Democrat Kyrsten Sinema by 6 points. But another recent poll by CBS News/YouGov found Sinema ahead by 3 and a Fox News poll gave the Democrat a 2-point lead.
The Kavanaugh Effect will likely impact this race, since both candidates are women.
In Missouri, Claire McCaskill hoped for a bounce when she declared her support for the party line in the Kavanaugh vote. This race has the biggest potential to feel the Kavanaugh Effect, as Republican Josh Hawley currently holds a razor-thin edge over Democrat Claire McCaskill (46 – 45.6).
Nevada Republican Dean Heller is currently tied with Democrat Jacky Rosen. Heller’s fortunes changed in the wake of the Kavanaugh hearings.
Indiana has a 3-way race. Republican Mike Braun, Democrat Joe Donnelly, and Libertarian Lucy Brenton find themselves in an interesting race. Donnelly currently holds a slim2.5-point lead over Braun (43.5 – 41). Libertarian Brenton is taking 7 percent of the vote.
Montana and Florida
In Montana, mid-September polls show Democrat John Tester holding the edge by just 3 points. I suspect this is no longer the case, given numbers I’m seeing elsewhere.
In Florida, late September polls gave Democrat Bill Nelson a narrow 2.5-point lead over Republican Gov. Rick Scott. Again, I believe these numbers could now be reversed.
While the Kavanaugh Effect has undoubtedly helped many Republicans, understand that it’s the Democrats who face the biggest challenges. A booming economy makes Leftism a difficult sell.
Also, keep in mind that polls are almost always slanted to the Democrats. So if you added 2 points to the Republicans in any of these polls, you likely get a Republican sweep of the 7 seats supposedly in play. How nice would that be.