America’s standard-bearer for fake news, CNN, still produces polls. And as we all know by now, the polls are meaningless for results. However, they are good for trends.
And the latest CNN poll doesn’t bode well for Team Biden. Because President Trump closed the gap on presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden.
According the CNN poll published Sunday evening, across 15 battleground states Biden leads by 49 to 48 points ahead over Trump. A one point advantage by Biden on a poll that you can be guaranteed has a huge advantage for Democrats. More on this in a bit. Because there is far worse news for Biden than the one-point gap.
In the last CNN poll, Biden supposedly led Trump by 14 points. At the time, Trump’s campaign called “foul”, and demanded CNN apologize for the blatant polling fraud. As it turns out, either the poll was fraudulent or Trump made a miraculous comeback in a short amount of time.
Back to the one-point advantage
The thing that should worry Democrats is the timing of this poll. Post-running mate announcement, Trump closes a 14-point gap to within one point on a tainted poll?
From my vantage point, it appears that Kamala Harris hasn’t produced. Unusual for a woman of her “repute”.
Isn’t the announcement of your running mate supposed to give the campaign a boost? That’s certainly what happened when John McCain announced Sarah Palin as his running mate.
For example, after announcing Palin as the presumptive vice-presidential nominee, the McCain campaign received $7 million boost in contributions.
Next, according to a Washington Post/ABC News survey published on September 9, 2008, John McCain had gained huge support among white women voters since the announcement. The poll showed that McCain he had not only surpassed Obama in white women voters, but also amassed a lead of five percentage points in the Gallup polls.
John Zogby found that the effects of Palin’s selection were helping the McCain ticket since “She has high favorability numbers, and has unified the Republican Party.”
Palin was subsequently attacked. Because Democrats knew what a popular VP would do for the crotchety McCain. While McCain had no chance to beat Baby Black Jesus due to the hoopla surrounding Obama and McCain’s unwillingness to fight, Palin would have made it a real fight. Harris brings no such gravitas.
No matter how Democrats try to spin this, the CNN poll reveals the real problem for the Biden-Harris ticket and Democrats in general. There is no enthusiasm for Democrats this election cycle. The Biden-Harris ticket represents the Party of Blah.
Still it gets worse
According to Rasmussen, one-third of blacks won’t support Democrats because of Kamala Harris.
The poll begins by painting a rosy picture of the choice of Harris:
Earlier this week, Joe Biden named Kamala Harris as his running mate. Democrats overwhelmingly like the California senator and have their eye on her to hold the top spot in 2024 if the Democratic ticket loses this time around. Seventy-six percent (76%) of Likely Democratic Voters have a favorable impression of Harris, including 48% who have a Very Favorable impression. Just 18% of Democrats have an unfavorable view of California’s former attorney general, with 11% who say Very Unfavorable.
Then the bad news hits. The choice is a wash, as an equal number of voters support the choice versus those who don’t. Perhaps worse, 50% don’t care.
Twenty-four percent (24%) of all voters say Biden’s VP choice will make them more likely to vote for the Democratic ticket in November. Just as many (24%) say it will make them less likely to vote for Biden now that Harris is by his side. Half (50%) say this week’s announcement will have no impact when it comes to their vote.
No blood, no foul. But now the really bad news.
I predicted on my radio show that Harris won’t bring the black vote. And Rasmussen agrees:
But while black voters (37%) are more likely than white voters (28%) and voters not affiliated with either major party (25%) to hold a Very Favorable opinion of Harris, who would be the first woman of color to hold the office of vice president if elected, a third of black voters say Biden’s VP announcement makes them less likely to vote for Democratic ticket in November.
None of this is good news. The 37% of blacks “more likely” were “likely” to begin with. No black Conservative would switch from Trump to Biden over the pick of Harris as a running mate. So unless Rasmussen implies that 37% of blacks are more enthusiastic (a possibility), then it’s a wash.
Still, one-third of blacks are less likely to vote for Harris. Harris suppressed the already dismal black vote for Biden.
And it’s only going to get worse for Democrats
Now that America has proof of Trump’s allegations that Obama spied on him, the public’s appetite for justice won’t allow a Biden win. For those who believe Democrats will cheat their way to victory, understand that Team Trump knows more than people think. They won’t allow that to happen. The fact that Obama tried to cheat Trump in 2016 allows Trump much indulgence, should the numbers look “henke”.
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