For the past year, I believe we’ve written of dropping polls numbers every single month. If we missed one, I’d be surprised. Because every time we turn around, Biden slips a little further down.
In fact, his plummeting ratings are setting as many records as Bidenflation. It just can’t get much worse. But you won’t hear conservatives complaining, because polls like these guarantee Biden won’t get a second term.
While Democrats are desperate to find a solution, no such answer exists. All we can do it analyze the rut the president is in.
Fox News explains:
Former Clinton advisor and pollster Mark Penn joined “The Story” Thursday to analyze why President Biden is losing support in key Democratic voting blocs.
MARK PENN: These are spectacularly low [approval] numbers. To really get down to it, only a third being favorable and in the 20s on independents, of course makes [Biden’s] reelection a virtual impossibility. The administration has got to pivot or this is going to be a tornado of a midterms if these numbers continue to hold up. And frankly, they’ve had month after month here to do something to turn around on inflation, on immigration, on Ukraine, on crime. And they just haven’t done it. They have done small little incremental changes. They need big changes to change some big numbers.
Even CNN sees the writing on the wall!
They write:
CNN’s poll of polls — an average of the last four national polls of Americans — pegs Biden’s approval at just 39% with 55% disapproving. Those numbers haven’t changed much from the 40% approval/54% disapproval that CNN’s poll of polls measured in March or the 41% approval/54% disapproval from mid-January.
They also make clear that the bump
Biden experienced in some polling in the immediate aftermath of his State of the Union speech in early March was temporary — and not evidence of any longer-term comeback.
This is all bad news for Democrats whose electoral fate — if history is any guide — is directly tied to Biden’s popularity (or lack thereof).
As of 2018, the
average seat loss for the president’s party in a midterm election when the president’s approval rating was under 50% was
37 House seats.
Consider these two facts:
1) In November 1994, when Republicans won a net of 54 House seats and retook control of the House majority, Bill Clinton’s approval rating,
according to Gallup, was 46%.
2) In November 2010, when Republicans won a net of 63 House seats and retook control of the House majority, Barack Obama’s approval rating,
according to Gallup, was at 45%.
Not only is Biden’s average job approval rating at this point well below where his two most recent Democratic predecessors were when they suffered these monumental defeats, but also Republicans now need only a net gain of five seats to win back the House majority.
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The deeper you dig, the worse it gets!
If you start looking at different polls, and breaking down the exact statistics, it’s surprising that Democrats haven’t locked Biden back in his basement. It seems he faired better with voters when he never appeared above ground.
CNN adds:
Take a
Quinnipiac University poll that was released on Wednesday. The topline number for Biden is bad — 33% approval among adults and 35% approval among registered voters.
And it doesn’t get any better for Biden when you look at percentage of adults who strongly approve of his job performance versus those who strongly disapprove. Just 18% strongly approve of how Biden is handling his job as president, while more than double that number — 43% — strongly disapprove.
That speaks to a major passion gap between the two parties. And especially in midterm election, passionate people vote.
Adding to the issues for Biden and Democrats is the fact that there is no obvious event waiting on the horizon that could turn things around for their side.
The news earlier this week that the
Consumer Price Index soared 8.5% between last March and this March was a gut punch for an administration trying to make the case that the economy is roaring back to life. The latest Covid-19 subvariant has case counts rising in some states even as the Biden administration’s decision to
extend the travel mask mandate for an additional 15 days is drawing derision. While Biden gets decent marks for his handling of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, poll after poll suggests that concerns about the economy trump (ahem) foreign policy in most voters’ minds.
In short: It is a pretty
dark time to be a Democrat facing voters this fall. And there’s no sign that things are going to get any brighter.
