Trick Revealed: How the Illusion Failed Democrats

Kevin JacksonDecember 1, 2024
4 minutes read
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Why are we so fascinated by polls? By now all of America knows that the polls are complete BS, but there will be more polling.

Those who pretend to be quants as it relates to polling are as full of sh*t as their numbers proved to be. Look at the Marist poll that came out right before the election.

Tell me this isn’t a “feel-good” poll for the Harris faithful. And those idiots believe this poll up to the bitter end. Suckers, all. Bamboozled by wishful thinking.

And the guy who fancies himself a polling guru fared almost as bad. His only saving grace is he had Trump squeaking by with a win.

 

Here is a link to an interactive map. And you will see that Silver would have done better asking random strangers to provide deltas. His guesses were pathetic.

Further, anybody using 2020 numbers for a comparison of anything other than measuring the amount of cheating Democrats did was pursuing a fool’s folly. The massive cheating for Biden is one of the reasons the number skewed so badly in 2020. Zero Hedge tweeted about the disparity, though they hadn’t recognized all the 2024 votes at the time of the tweet:

 

Did you spot the anomaly? There is no way in hell Joe Biden got 81 million votes and beat Trump who got 74 million. After the dust settles in this election, Trump will have likely eclipsed his 2020 numbers in a statistically impossible loss.

I knew Trump would win intuitively. And I knew based a variety of sources, mostly ad hoc.

For example, I would ask all Uber drivers, clerks, maintenance people, etc who they were voting for. Overwhelmingly they responded, “Trump”. Next, I looked at hundreds of X accounts and thousands of posts, and tens of thousands of comments. It was clear to me that Trump would win. Big.

Back to the other polls.

I dare you to actually build a matrix of the pollsters, and their state-by-state polling. Even their national polling came into question. They performed so well, they should be ashamed.

In fact, their polling reminded me of the sports bookies who advertise on TV and apps. They give you the “hot” tip, if you buy a couple more pics. In their infomercials, they tout their records and really ham it up even more if they had a good week. But what I noticed is if they go 2 for 5, they hype the wins.

“Last week I gave you the SURE WINNER in my deluxe package and it paid off!” 

If you didn’t bet with them, you wouldn’t know that they were 40 percent. So in this case, Nate Silver will say that he picked another election correctly. Well if he picked Biden last time, then he got a tip from the mob. Because no sane person would have picked Biden. And I repeat, Biden got cheated into office. More on this in a bit.

Pollsters job is to measure public opinion, but it often feels more like they’re spinning yarns to push a narrative. And for that reason we should keep looking at polls—not for their accuracy, but for the lies they reveal. The real art is in dissecting the polling game to uncover the propaganda they’re trying to sell.

In 2016, pollsters collectively tripped over their shoelaces. Nearly every major polling outfit—be it Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, the Pew Research Center, or others—had Hillary Clinton pegged as the runaway favorite. And what happened? Trump’s decisive Electoral College victory sent their credibility into freefall. Sure, some pollsters tried to save face with post-election spin. Silver even claimed his models gave Trump a “credible” chance of winning, but in hindsight, it was like hyping a two-for-five betting record.

2020 was an anomaly on many levels.

The polling leading up to the 2020 election had Biden with commanding leads in key swing states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Yet, Trump outperformed expectations in nearly every battleground state. This discrepancy wasn’t just a statistical blip—it was systemic malpractice designed to demoralize Trump supporters and prop up Biden as the inevitable winner. However, the real absurdity is that Biden was never leading.

The polling industry operates much like those sports bookies hawking “hot tips” on late-night infomercials. They’ll hype their rare wins while glossing over their abysmal track records. “Last week, I gave you the SURE WINNER with my deluxe package!” It’s all sizzle, no steak. And if you weren’t keeping tabs, you’d never know they went 2 for 5.

Polling outfits are no different. After the 2020 election, Nate Silver and his peers scrambled to salvage their reputations. Silver claimed that polling “mostly got it right,” citing Biden’s win as proof. Proof of your polling in a rigged election?

Predicting Biden would win in a rigged system isn’t clairvoyance—it’s insider trading. Biden didn’t “win” so much as he was “cheated into office.” The pollsters, knowingly or not, were complicit in pushing this charade.

Why Polls Still Matter

So why should we keep paying attention to polls? Not because they’re accurate—far from it—but because they reveal the lies being fed to the public. The patterns of oversampling, the narratives being pushed, and the spin in the aftermath all point to a broader agenda. If you track these trends, you can often see through the fog and anticipate the real dynamics at play.

For instance, in the lead-up to 2024, we saw polls painting Trump as unelectable while inflating the popularity of Harris. But as history has shown, polling is less about capturing public opinion and more about manufacturing consent. By scrutinizing their methods and questioning their motives, we can dismantle the narratives they’re trying to sell.

 

 

Kevin JacksonDecember 1, 2024
4 minutes read
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