I can’t lie. I’m going to miss the Iranians.
Not the terrorism, hostage-taking or chanting mobs. I’m going to miss the comedy.
Iran’s leaders possess a special kind of confidence—the confidence of a man being thrown out of a nightclub who announces that he was just about to leave anyway.
For decades, the Iranian regime has perfected the Kim Jong-il school of international diplomacy: beat your chest, launch something into the air, threaten the United States and hope nobody checks the scoreboard.
Sadly for Tehran, President Trump checks the scoreboard.
Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf announced Sunday that “the era of proportionate responses has come to an end.” He promised that any further American action would receive a response that was faster, more intense and more painful.
That is tough talk from a regime whose military résumé increasingly consists of things it claims to have “targeted.”
The media described the six-month conflict between the United States and Iran as a “deadlock.”
A deadlock?
A deadlock suggests two relatively equal forces preventing one another from advancing. This looks more like America repossessing Iran one oil tanker at a time.
Diplomatically, the conflict may be stalled because no agreement has been reached. Militarily and economically, however, the two countries are not operating from equal positions.
America strikes targets.
Iran announces that it tried.
That isn’t a deadlock.
Following Iranian attacks against American warships, U.S. forces struck three oil tankers reportedly connected to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. CENTCOM said the vessels were part of the multibillion-dollar shadow network used to finance the IRGC and its regional proxies.
Military video showed fireballs and flames engulfing the ships.
Iran responded with a statement.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it had “targeted” three oil tankers and three vessels affiliated with what it called “child-killing America.”
Notice the verb: targeted.
Iran didn’t say it sank the vessels. It didn’t describe significant damage. It targeted them.
I have targeted the Powerball jackpot many times. Thus far, the lottery commission has suffered no casualties.
Iran also claimed it attacked an American naval drone attempting to enter the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM spokesman Captain Tim Hawkins called the claim “a complete lie.”
So where is the wreckage?
Where is the video?
Iranian state television produces more military fiction than Hollywood. At least Tom Cruise actually hits the target.
Iran Sanctions the United States
Apparently unsatisfied with imaginary military victories, Tehran’s top security official, Mohsen Rezaei, announced that Iran would establish a “prohibited zone” near the Strait of Hormuz.
Any ship entering the zone, he warned, would be placed on Iran’s sanctions list.
Iran is sanctioning ships now.
Imagine a man whose house is being foreclosed announcing that the bank is no longer welcome on his property.
What exactly happens when Iran sanctions an American aircraft carrier? Does it lose access to Iran’s banking system? Will the sailors be unable to purchase Iranian vacation homes? Is Tehran cancelling their invitations to the annual “Death to America” mixer?
The regime is trying to govern maritime traffic using the international equivalent of an angry Yelp review.
Iran claims control of the Strait of Hormuz, but declaring control and exercising control are different things. The regime can threaten commercial vessels, disrupt shipping and raise the cost of global trade. Those are serious capabilities, and they should not be dismissed.
But Iran does not possess uncontested control of the waterway. Its forces operate under the constant surveillance and firepower of the United States military.
Nevertheless, Tehran continues behaving as if renaming a section of the Persian Gulf changes the balance of power.
At this rate, Iran’s next move will be to declare the USS George H.W. Bush a gun-free zone.
Trump’s Strategy: Stop Rewarding the Tantrum
Previous administrations treated every Iranian threat as an invitation to another meeting.
Iran would finance terrorism, threaten Israel, harass commercial shipping and chant about America’s destruction. Washington would respond by assembling diplomats, offering sanctions relief and asking Tehran which hotel it preferred for negotiations.
Trump changed the arrangement.
His diplomatic strategy appears to be: ignore the performance.
His military strategy is only slightly more complicated: if Iran attacks American assets, remove something Iran values.
The regime fires unsuccessfully at American warships. America destroys revenue-producing tankers.
Iran issues another threat. The United States tightens the financial noose.
Tehran holds a press conference. Trump changes the subject.
Nothing frustrates a narcissistic regime like discovering that its enemy no longer fears the monologue.
Iran still possesses missiles, drones and the ability to cause real harm. American service members and regional allies remain at risk. But the regime’s strategic position is worsening as sanctions, interdictions and attacks on its energy infrastructure constrict the money available to sustain military operations and regional proxies.
The mullahs aren’t negotiating from strength.
They are negotiating from inventory.
Following the Money Into Terrorism’s Couch Cushions
The broader campaign against terrorist financing offers another indication of how aggressively the United States is pursuing these networks.
The Justice Department recently announced the seizure of approximately $560,000 in cryptocurrency connected to Hamas fundraising, along with the disruption of websites allegedly used to solicit money and recruit supporters. U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro delivered a simple warning: terrorist networks are not secure, and their cryptocurrency is vulnerable.
The operation should not be misrepresented as proof that Iran directly controlled every seized dollar. It does demonstrate that the financial infrastructure supporting terrorist organizations is being hunted across banks, websites, servers and cryptocurrency wallets.
That matters to Iran because the regime’s power has never depended solely on its conventional military. It depends on financing proxies, moving money through covert networks and convincing the world that its reach is greater than it actually is.
When authorities begin fighting over hundreds of thousands of dollars, you are no longer watching terrorism operate with unlimited resources. You are watching investigators search the couch cushions.
America is attacking the ecosystem, not merely the missiles.
Destroy the tanker.
Seize the cryptocurrency.
Take the website.
Expose the donor.
Disconnect the bank.
Eventually, a terrorist network becomes a group chat with no cellular service.
The Threats Will Get Louder
Iran’s rhetoric will intensify as its options diminish.
That is not unusual. Cornered regimes rarely announce their weakness. They announce new prohibited zones, promise greater pain and invent military victories for domestic television.
Ghalibaf’s declaration that proportionate responses are finished may sound ominous. It may also be an admission that Iran’s proportionate responses accomplished nothing.
The mullahs need their population, allies and remaining supporters to believe that victory is still possible. More important, they need President Trump to believe Iran remains worthy of endless negotiation.
Trump doesn’t appear interested.
He has allowed Tehran to discover the most frightening development in international diplomacy: America can hear your threat and continue with its day.
I expect Trump to announce significant Iranian concessions—or perhaps the collapse of the regime’s negotiating position—before the midterm elections. That is a prediction, not a guarantee. Wars rarely follow campaign calendars, and weakened regimes can still behave irrationally.
But Iran’s trajectory is unmistakable.
The money is disappearing.
The tankers are burning.
The proxies are being squeezed.
The threats are becoming more theatrical.
Iran has now declared a prohibited zone in the Persian Gulf.
Unfortunately for the mullahs, President Trump has declared one inside reality—and Iran’s leaders wandered out of it years ago.
