The pending 2022 midterms must remind Democrats of the carnage of 2010. But with a noticeable difference.
In 2010 Democrats ran with the muscle-memory of the 2008 Magic Negro. In 2022, they have no such magician. Biden is a worn out magic hack, sawing an economy in half. And everybody is on to his trick.
Republicans are widely expected to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives in this November’s midterm elections, with betting market PredictIt giving an 84% chance for that outcome.
The GOP is getting good odds for taking back the U.S. Senate, too, as PredictIt puts them at 73%.
Having his Democratic Party lose its grip on both chambers of Congress would be a considerable setback for President Joe Biden.
Below is a chart of the key Senate races in 2022
|1||Arizona||Sen. Mark Kelly (D)||Toss up|
|2||Florida||Sen. Marco Rubio (R)||Lean R|
|3||Georgia||Sen. Raphael Warnock (D)||Toss up|
|4||Nevada||Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D)||Toss up|
|5||New Hampshire||Sen. Maggie Hassan (D)||Lean D|
|6||North Carolina||N/A, incumbent (R) retiring||Toss up|
|7||Ohio||N/A, incumbent (R) retiring||Lean R|
|8||Pennsylvania||N/A, incumbent (R) retiring||Toss up|
|9||Wisconsin||Sen. Ron Johnson (R)||Toss up|
By the numbers:
Democrats are the incumbents in four out of the nine competitive races. And while New Hampshire may hold its seat for Democrats, those in Arizona, New Mexico, and Georgia won’t be so lucky.
Unless Democrats plan to pull 4am cheats in those states, I anticipate Republicans adding at least two of the three senate seats in these races.
Republicans are the incumbents in two of the races: Wisconsin and Florida. Rubio will easily hold Florida, since election laws prevent Democrat skullduggery. I believe Wisconsin will stay Republican as well.
Next, three states don’t have incumbents running because they’ve opted to retire; all Republican RINOs. North Carolina’s Richard Burr, Ohio’s Rob Portman and Pennsylvania’s Pat Toomey all saw the inevitability of their primaries. All chose voluntary retirement versus mandatory retirement.
Republicans will retain these seats. And you can bet these new Republican senators will be hand-picked by the pro-Trump base.
All it takes is ONE seat for Republicans to control the Senate. But Republicans plan to have a much larger cushion.
“It is a sign of just how dire the situation is for Democrats that their best shot at keeping the Senate and limiting their losses in the House is the propensity of their opponents to nominate candidates who frighten suburbanites more than they do,” said Matthew Continetti, a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative-leaning think tank, in a recent National Review op-ed.
“Even so, the various weaknesses of the Republican Party may not be enough to save the Democrats.”
Democrats seized control of the Senate just one year ago. They accomplished this with two candidates in Georgia who defeated incumbent Republicans in the state’s runoff elections on Jan. 5, 2021. But they won’t have Republican RINOs at the helm who won’t contest elections. Further, conservatives in Georgia will be more energized than ever before, and Democrats have NO reason to feel great.
Republicans will control the Senate after the 2022 elections. But things won’t be any better in the House for Democrats.
They took control of the House in the 2018 midterm elections. But their lead is 221 to 212. Expect Republicans to more than close that 9 member gap. And again, Trump-endorsed candidates will replace RINOs leaving Congress like rats from a sinking ship.