I admire the Iranians for their bluster.
They remind me of the earlier version of Kim Jong-un, back when North Korea was still producing threats so absurd that you weren’t sure whether the regime was threatening America or auditioning for a Saturday Night Live sketch.
Iran has now apparently decided that it controls the Strait of Hormuz.
There is just one small problem.
It doesn’t.
But that hasn’t stopped the Islamic Republic from making the claim.
Iranian officials have said the Strait is under Iranian control and that no vessel should pass without Iranian authorization. President Trump, meanwhile, has said the United States has “total control” of the Strait and that America may keep it. (Reuters)
So who is right?
Well, there’s a very simple way to answer that question.
Look at who is actually capable of enforcing his claim.
That’s generally how power works.
If I tell you I own your house, but you are sitting in your house, I’m probably going to have trouble enforcing my new property rights.
Iran has been making a similar argument about one of the most strategically important waterways on the planet.
And now we get to the really funny part.
Iran is negotiating with Oman about how commercial traffic will move through a waterway that Iran insists it controls.
Meanwhile, the United States is sitting there with the world’s most powerful military and has been enforcing a naval blockade around Iran. The U.S. has also announced that its Navy has cleared mines from the main shipping lane. (Axios)
This is the geopolitical equivalent of me announcing that I’m going to determine how Elon Musk spends his money.
That’s basically Iran’s argument.
Iran has spent decades building its reputation around threats. Close the Strait. Destroy Israel. Attack America. Destroy American ships. Wipe out this. Wipe out that.
Eventually, however, you run into the little problem of having to distinguish between saying you control something and actually controlling it.
And that distinction is becoming painfully obvious.
Iran and Oman might as well be Beevus nd Butthead, as if they have any clout in discussing a temporary shipping corridor through the Strait. Yet, Reuters pretends that these countries have any substantive value here. (Reuters)
Simply put, Iran is not sitting on a throne at the entrance to the Strait handing out permission slips to the world’s navies.
Iran is saber-rattling with a butter knife. Because Iran desperately needs the Strait.
Before the war, roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passed through Hormuz. The conflict has dramatically reduced that traffic, creating enormous economic pressure throughout the region.
And Iran is hardly immune to that pressure.
Reuters reported last week that Iranian oil shipments had fallen to roughly 534,000 barrels per day in August, compared with an average of about 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025. Iranian oil offers to Chinese buyers have also fallen sharply as the American blockade bites.
Worse however is that other countries are building pipelines that will make the Strait of Hormuz irrelevant, at least for oil and LNG.
So let’s review.
Iran needs to sell oil. And to sell oil, Iran needs shipping.
No oil sales, no money. Ergo, Iran needs money.
Conclusion, Iran needs the Strait open.
And yet Iran continues to posture as though it is doing America a favor by allowing civilization to continue.
This is what happens when propaganda becomes indistinguishable from government policy.
The Iranian regime has spent years telling its population that America is a declining power and Iran is an emerging regional superpower.
Then Donald Trump shows up.
And suddenly Iran is negotiating with Oman about how ships might eventually move through a waterway that America clearly controls.
That’s quite a plot twist.
And there is another piece of this that deserves attention.
The media coverage of Iran often focuses on what Iranian leaders say.
They quote the threats.
They quote the demands.
They quote the declarations that Iran is in control.
But what about what President Trump is saying?
Trump has essentially ghosted Iran.
And Iran appears increasingly desperate to get his attention.
That’s the part that gets lost.
Trump doesn’t have to answer every Iranian threat.
He doesn’t have to jump every time Tehran makes an announcement.
He doesn’t have to beg for a meeting.
He doesn’t have to pretend that Iran is some mystical geopolitical chess master whose every move requires a twelve-part analysis from CNN.
Sometimes you just apply pressure and wait.
Eventually, reality starts negotiating for you.
And reality is a terrible negotiator for Iran.
Because reality doesn’t care about speeches.
Reality doesn’t care about revolutionary slogans.
Reality doesn’t care how many times an Iranian general says the Strait belongs to Iran.
Reality asks a much simpler question:
Who can actually control what happens there?
And that’s where the Iranian fantasy collides with the American military.
Iran can claim the Strait.
It can threaten ships and make demands.
It can negotiate with Oman.
And it can announce that it has reached agreements.
But none of that changes the fundamental equation.
The United States has a Navy.
Iran has a very large collection of problems.
And the longer this goes on, the harder it becomes for Iran to maintain the illusion that it is negotiating from a position of strength.
That’s why I find the Iranian bluster so entertaining.
It isn’t because Iran isn’t dangerous. It is.
It isn’t because Iran has no military capability. It does.
And it isn’t because the situation is over. It isn’t.
The war has lasted far longer than the Trump administration initially anticipated, and the Strait remains a major unresolved problem. (AP News)
But Iran’s problem is that its rhetoric keeps describing a country that no longer exists.
Iran wants you to believe it is the dominant power in the region.
Its behavior increasingly suggests something else.
A country under enormous economic and military pressure, trying to figure out how to get commerce moving again.
And that’s the difference between power and posturing.
Power doesn’t have to announce itself every five minutes.
Sometimes it just sits there.
And lets the other guy negotiate.
Iran apparently hasn’t figured that out yet.
