You’ve heard the predictions. You’ve seen the polls. And you’ve probably watched the media act as though Election Day an election day victory for Democrats is little more than a formality.
I see it differently.
In this report, I’m putting my prediction in writing, explaining why I believe the Republican vote is stronger than the conventional wisdom suggests, and giving you a scorecard we can come back to after the election.
No changing the terms afterward. No declaring that I “meant” something else.
Here’s the call.
MY PREDICTION
On November 3, Republicans will:
- Retain control of the United States Senate.
- Retain control of the United States House of Representatives.
- Win at least 221 House seats, expanding on the 220 seats Republicans won in the 2024 election.
That third part is what makes this a much bigger call than simply predicting Republicans hang on.
The president’s party usually loses House seats in a midterm. Republicans are defending a narrow majority. Many polls and analysts see Democrats as favorites to take the House.
I know what the conventional wisdom says.
I just don’t buy the conclusion.
And if I’m wrong, you won’t have to search for a new definition of what I meant. You can come right back to this page.
Let’s get into why I’m making the call.
1. THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY HAS GONE BACK TO THE ARCHIVES
The Democrats are bringing out their biggest names for the closing stretch.
Bill Clinton.
Barack Obama.
Two former presidents, both familiar to voters, both capable of drawing attention, and both back on the trail for Democratic candidates.
I understand why the party would ask them. If you’re a Democrat looking for someone who knows how to give a campaign speech, the current bench has been a little… uneven.
But consider what their presence says about the state of the party.
Clinton left the White House in 2001. Obama left in 2017. Meanwhile, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have not been the prominent faces of the late campaign push in the same way.
Democrats spent years telling us Biden was up to the job, Harris was ready to lead, and the administration was delivering for America. Now, when they need their most effective closers, they’re reaching past the most recent Democratic president and vice president.
Maybe the party thinks the old records play better than the new ones.
Or maybe it’s just trying to avoid a greatest-hits tour that includes inflation, the border, and the question of who was actually running the country.
Either way, the choice of messengers tells me something: Democrats know the Biden-Harris years are not an easy closing argument.
That doesn’t prove Democrats will lose. It does raise a question voters are entitled to ask:
If your most recent administration was such a success, why isn’t its record the centerpiece of your pitch?
2. THE CLOSING ARGUMENT HAS A DECORATING PROBLEM
Obama recently took aim at Trump’s White House renovations, including the new ballroom and the look of the Oval Office. Clinton mocked changes to the Rose Garden. www.nbcwashington.com
And I have to admit: I didn’t have “White House landscaping” at the top of my list of issues deciding the next Congress.
Americans are thinking about the economy, immigration, government spending, public safety, and what kind of country their children will inherit.
Democrats have brought us a decorating critique.
Now, to be fair, Obama did discuss other issues during his appearances. Democrats are making arguments about the economy, health care, immigration, and Trump’s conduct in office. Some voters might listen to those arguments and weigh them.
But notice what keeps getting the spotlight: Donald Trump.
The party has spent years trying to make every election a referendum on the man. If he speaks, he’s the story. If he travels, he’s the story. If he changes the landscaping, apparently the azaleas need a congressional investigation.
Trump is living rent-free in their heads.
And judging by the renovation complaints, they don’t like what he’s done with the place.
Here’s my point: a party can energize its base by attacking a president. But to win the districts that determine control of the House, it must also persuade voters that its candidates offer something better.
I’m not convinced Democrats have made that case as effectively as the media believes.
3. TRUMP IS A FIGHTER—AND HIS VOTERS KNOW IT
As a trained fighter, I pay attention to how people respond when they get hit.
Some politicians take a punch, call a consultant or their attorney. Then, they issue a statement explaining why the punch was actually a positive development after they find out that they can’t sue.
Trump hits back.
Democrats can hate that about him. Republicans can occasionally wish he would put the phone down. But neither side should mistake the ability to generate controversy for a lack of political strength.
Trump has maintained a connection with voters through an extraordinary amount of opposition and scrutiny. His supporters have watched the attacks, the predictions that he was finished, and the repeated claims that the public had moved on.
Then they watched him win the presidency again.
That does not mean he wins every fight. He doesn’t. It does not mean he’s immune to criticism or that every Republican candidate benefits equally from his presence.
It means that people who have written him off before should be careful about doing it again.
The mistake I believe Democrats are making is assuming that their exhaustion with Trump is the same thing as the country’s exhaustion with Trump.
Those are two different things.
You can dislike a man intensely and still underestimate the loyalty of the people who support him.
4. THE RESULTS ARGUMENT IS STRONGER THAN DEMOCRATS WANT TO ADMIT
In my earlier writing, I made a point I think matters here: visible outcomes change political conversations.
For years, Americans were told that some problems were simply too complicated to solve—or at least too complicated for anyone to solve without another commission, another appropriation, and another election.
Trump ran on doing things differently. His supporters point to stronger immigration enforcement, a willingness to challenge the federal bureaucracy, changes to tax policy, and an aggressive approach to trade and national security.
Whether you agree with every decision or not, he has pursued the agenda he put in front of voters. Reuters has described his administration’s immigration crackdown, tariff policies, tax changes, and deregulation efforts, while also reporting a mixed economic record. investing.com
That mixed record matters. Voters do not buy groceries with a campaign slogan. They feel the cost of living, and they have every right to demand results.
But Democrats face their own problem: they have to persuade voters that returning more power to the party associated with the Biden-Harris years will improve those conditions.
Republicans have an opportunity to make this a choice about direction:
- Do you want stricter enforcement of immigration law?
- Do you want Washington’s bureaucracy challenged?
- Do you want an administration that follows through on the priorities it campaigned on?
- Or do you want a Congress whose central mission may be to stop Trump?
Democrats will frame those choices differently. Of course they will. But I believe Republican candidates who make a clear, local case can reach voters who aren’t represented by the loudest voices on television.
The Republicans’ job is to show results. The Democrats’ job is to convince voters those results aren’t good enough.
Election Day tells us which argument voters found more persuasive.
5. THE POLLS ARE A TOOL. THEY ARE NOT A CRYSTAL BALL.
Let’s talk about the numbers everyone keeps sending me.
As of this writing, some national surveys show Democrats ahead on the congressional ballot. A Reuters/Ipsos poll completed October 26 found registered voters favored Democrats over Republicans, 47% to 36%, and reported higher enthusiasm among Democratic respondents. That might be seen as a serious warning sign for my prediction. reuters.com
Do I seem worried?
Pollsters have to make choices:
- Whom do they contact?
- Who agrees to answer?
- Which responses do they weigh?
- Who is considered a likely voter?
- How will enthusiasm translate into actual turnout?
Those decisions matter. A poll can be conducted honestly and still be wrong. But dishonest polls are never right.
I remain skeptical of polling—particularly when the political class treats a survey like an election result that has already been certified.
We’ve discovered two national polls that admitted to being fake. Not biased. Fake.
But the situation is far worse.
The “other” polls underestimate Republican voters, their turnout, and their support in the districts that matter.
Did you see the poll on Trump’s appeal to MAGA (99%) and how many MAGA will support the Congressional Democrats (98%). Now that’s polling I can believe.
6. THE HOUSE IS WHERE I’M MAKING THE BIG CALL
Republicans won 220 House seats in the 2024 election. My prediction requires at least 221 Republican victories in the 2026 House races. en.wikipedia.org
That means Republicans need to do more than survive. They need to finish with more seats than they won two years ago.
Why do I think that can happen?
The national narrative does not vote in a district.
Every House race has a candidate, a community, local concerns, and a contest over who voters trust. A national poll can indicate the environment, but it doesn’t automatically decide a competitive seat.
Republican voters know what losing the House means.
A Democratic House could investigate the administration, block parts of its legislative agenda, and change the direction of the next two years. I believe Republican voters understand that the midterm is not a halftime show. It determines who controls the field.
Democrats still have to close the sale.
Disliking Trump may motivate Democratic voters. The question is whether Democrats can persuade enough voters in enough districts that their candidates offer the better alternative.
I believe some voters who are unhappy with politics generally will still conclude that handing the House to Democrats is not the answer.
Trump can make the stakes visible.
Say what you will about his style, Trump knows how to turn an election into a choice people feel. I expect that to matter in the closing stretch.
To hear Democrats, the best way for Republicans to win is to abandon Trump.
Seriously? The man who fills stadiums everywhere he goes, and without paying participants?
This is not me saying the race is easy.
It’s me saying I think the experts may be looking at the wrong ending.
7. THE SENATE: A DIFFERENT MAP, A DIFFERENT FIGHT
The Senate starts from a different position.
Republicans currently hold 53 seats. Democrats hold 45, with two independents caucusing with them, making the effective split 53–47. senate.gov
A 50–50 Senate can still leave Republicans in control because Vice President JD Vance can cast tie-breaking votes. For purposes of my prediction, Republicans holding control at 50 seats with the vice president’s tie-break counts as a Senate hold.
That doesn’t mean I’m predicting a 50–50 result. It means I want the rules clear before anybody starts moving the goalposts.
Democrats have opportunities. Republicans are defending a number of seats, and close races can turn on candidate quality and turnout. Reuters has described the Senate as a steeper climb for Democrats than the House, but still competitive. reuters.com
My view is that Republicans retain enough of their position to hold the chamber.
The Senate is not won by a national argument alone. It is won state by state. And that is where voters get the final say—not the cable-news panel, not the pollster, and certainly not me.
8. THE KEVIN JACKSON MIDTERM SCORECARD
When the results are settled, here is how to grade my prediction:
- My call
- What counts as a win
- Result
Republicans hold the House
Republicans win at least 218 of the 435 House seats
To be determined
Republicans expand the House majority
Republicans win at least 221 House seats, exceeding their 2024 election total of 220
To be determined
Republicans hold the Senate
Republicans control the Senate, including a 50–50 split with the Republican vice president breaking ties
To be determined
For the House, I’m using seats won in the 2026 general election compared with seats won in the 2024 general election. That makes the comparison clearer than using a changing October roster with vacancies.
If Republicans hold the House with 218, 219, or 220 seats, I’ll have the control call right and the expansion call wrong.
If they win 221 or more but lose the Senate, I’ll have the House calls right and the Senate call wrong.
If they win 221 or more and control the Senate, then I’ll expect massive book sales, and a call from Foch Snooze.
MY FINAL WORD
Democrats believe Donald Trump is their best campaign issue. Maybe he is—for their base.
But I believe they have spent so much time staring at Trump that they have forgotten to look at the voters who continue to support him, the voters who distrust the Democratic alternative, and the voters who are tired of being told the outcome before they’ve cast a ballot.
Clinton can talk about the Rose Garden. Obama can talk about the ballroom. The pollsters can publish another chart.
I’m looking at the fight ahead, and I’m making my call:
Republicans keep the Senate. Republicans keep the House. And Republicans win at least 221 House seats.
Will it happen?
I believe it will.
But believing it doesn’t cast a ballot.
The only poll that settles this opens on Election Day—and closes when the votes are counted.
See you on the other side.
